First, what is the formula for expected first serve %?
This was stated in another thread.
if Power is equal to or bigger than Consistency : 1 - 0.3 * (0.9 ^ ((Consistency - Power) * 1.75 / 100))
if Power is less than Consistency : 0.7 * (0.875 ^ (Power - Consistency) / 10)
See the screenshot. Are either of those formulas correct - in the screenshot it's an attempt at the formula when power is lower than consistency.
Is it divide power minus consistency by 10. Raise .875 to that power. Multiply that result by .7? Enter power and consistency as decimals such as .75 for 75%? If so, the result is always 70% - 71%.
If it's what's mentioned in words but with the percent entered as whole numbers - 75% as 75- then it goes over 100, for example if Power = 57 and Consistency is 87.
Aside from the calculation, it appears that there are (for computer controlled players) low 1st serve %.
For example a player with 75% Power and 87% Consistency served this % (I played the same match a few times, fast forward to end): 63%, 59%, 63%, 63%, 59%
When the points play instead of fast forward to end, the %'s are very low. This is for the same match: 46%, 49%, 45%, 49%, 46%
Those 40's are what led me to check this. In general I let matches play fast forward to important events. The %'s are very often in the 40's, even in matches the player dominates.