Mana Games

[Volleyguy]

First, what is the formula for expected first serve %?

This was stated in another thread.
if Power is equal to or bigger than Consistency : 1 - 0.3 * (0.9 ^ ((Consistency - Power) * 1.75 / 100))
if Power is less than Consistency : 0.7 * (0.875 ^ (Power - Consistency) / 10)

See the screenshot. Are either of those formulas correct - in the screenshot it's an attempt at the formula when power is lower than consistency.

Is it divide power minus consistency by 10. Raise .875 to that power. Multiply that result by .7? Enter power and consistency as decimals such as .75 for 75%? If so, the result is always 70% - 71%.

If it's what's mentioned in words but with the percent entered as whole numbers - 75% as 75- then it goes over 100, for example if Power = 57 and Consistency is 87.

Aside from the calculation, it appears that there are (for computer controlled players) low 1st serve %.

For example a player with 75% Power and 87% Consistency served this % (I played the same match a few times, fast forward to end): 63%, 59%, 63%, 63%, 59%
When the points play instead of fast forward to end, the %'s are very low. This is for the same match: 46%, 49%, 45%, 49%, 46%

Those 40's are what led me to check this. In general I let matches play fast forward to important events. The %'s are very often in the 40's, even in matches the player dominates.

[KINGBARBOZA]

It's RNG. Just pray you get lucky and get a high serve percentage.

[Volleyguy]

RNG? What does that mean?

[Burned]

RNG? What does that mean?

Random Number Generator.
That means whether you get a first serve or not is randomly drawn (following a specific probability formula).
Beware : "randomly drawn" doesn't mean "50/50".

[manutoo]

Volleyguy,
the 1st formula is incorrect ; with 57 & 87 (instead of 0.57 & 0.87), it should be :
1 - 0.3 * (0.9 ^ ((Consistency - Power) * 17.5 / 100))

This gives an average success rate of 82.7%.

After, the CPU can wrongly aim left/right so it'll lower the percentage. If he's very small or has a special strategy applied, it can also alter a bit more this percentage.

There's no difference when skipping the match : it's just a fast-forward with the exact same rules applied.

Could you click on Settings -> World Tour -> Show Match Log, and copy/paste all these match stats ?

[Volleyguy]

The formula you posted in reply is what was stated for Power > Consistency. Power 57 is less than Consistency 87. Even so, that formula (as shown in the two examples in the screen shot) must be wrong. It is always around 70%.

Match Logs attached. These are different from the ones I mentioned earlier. Didn't have logs of those

Johnny McEnroe (#710 - Master-10 100.1%) def. Robert Galloway (#265 - Master-10 100.0%) : 6/0 6/0 - R1 - Bergamo - Carpet - 0:15'01 (0:45'29) - 2024-01-14 04:14 (2021 ; Week 1)

16 / 27 = 59% 1st Serve 12 / 39 = 31% 41 / 49 = 84% Short Rallies Won (< 5) 8 / 49 = 16%
7 Aces 0 11 / 17 = 65% Medium Rallies Won (5-8) 6 / 17 = 35%
1 Double Faults 1 0 / 0 = 0% Long Rallies Won (> 8) 0 / 0 = 0%
116 Mph Fastest Serve 87 Mph Average Rally Length: 3.1
107 Mph Avg 1st Serve Speed 85 Mph 0 Set Points Saved 1
92 Mph Avg 2nd Serve Speed 69 Mph 0 Match Points Saved 0
25 Winners 5 15 / 16 = 94% Points won on 1st Serve 7 / 12 = 58%
2 Forced Errors 10 9 / 11 = 82% Points won on 2nd Serve 4 / 27 = 15%
6 Unforced Errors 9 28 / 39 = 72% Return Points Won 3 / 27 = 11%
24 / 28 = 86% Net Approaches 9 / 19 = 47% 2 Return Winners 0
6 / 8 = 75% Break Point Conversions 0 / 0 = 0% 6 / 6 = 100% Breaks / Games With Break Point 0 / 0 = 0%
52 Total Points Won 14
Darko Jandric (#472 - Master-10 69.5%) def. T-Bot2 (#839 - Master-10 100.0%) : 0/4 ret. - R1 - Guatemala F1 - Cement - 0:05'25 (0:15'13) - 2024-01-14 04:26 (2021 ; Week 3)

5 / 14 = 36% 1st Serve 3 / 9 = 33% 2 / 16 = 13% Short Rallies Won (< 5) 14 / 16 = 88%
0 Aces 0 2 / 5 = 40% Medium Rallies Won (5-8) 3 / 5 = 60%
0 Double Faults 1 0 / 2 = 0% Long Rallies Won (> 8) 2 / 2 = 100%
78 Mph Fastest Serve 112 Mph Average Rally Length: 3.8
75 Mph Avg 1st Serve Speed 111 Mph 0 Set Points Saved 0
66 Mph Avg 2nd Serve Speed 93 Mph 0 Match Points Saved 0
1 Winners 8 2 / 5 = 40% Points won on 1st Serve 3 / 3 = 100%
7 Forced Errors 1 1 / 9 = 11% Points won on 2nd Serve 5 / 6 = 83%
4 Unforced Errors 1 1 / 9 = 11% Return Points Won 11 / 14 = 79%
2 / 9 = 22% Net Approaches 3 / 3 = 100% 0 Return Winners 1
0 / 0 = 0% Break Point Conversions 2 / 4 = 50% 0 / 0 = 0% Breaks / Games With Break Point 2 / 3 = 67%
4 Total Points Won 19
Johnny McEnroe (#710 - Master-10 99.3%) def. Hugo Gaston (#240 - Master-10 100.0%) : 6/2 6/1 - R2 - Bergamo - Carpet - 0:15'55 (0:49'53) - 2024-01-14 04:27 (2021 ; Week 1)

22 / 37 = 59% 1st Serve 24 / 35 = 69% 39 / 51 = 76% Short Rallies Won (< 5) 12 / 51 = 24%
3 Aces 0 12 / 20 = 60% Medium Rallies Won (5-8) 8 / 20 = 40%
0 Double Faults 1 1 / 1 = 100% Long Rallies Won (> 8) 0 / 1 = 0%
121 Mph Fastest Serve 100 Mph Average Rally Length: 3.3
105 Mph Avg 1st Serve Speed 90 Mph 0 Set Points Saved 0
95 Mph Avg 2nd Serve Speed 78 Mph 0 Match Points Saved 0
22 Winners 15 20 / 22 = 91% Points won on 1st Serve 12 / 24 = 50%
0 Forced Errors 13 12 / 15 = 80% Points won on 2nd Serve 3 / 11 = 27%
5 Unforced Errors 13 20 / 35 = 57% Return Points Won 5 / 37 = 14%
26 / 31 = 84% Net Approaches 13 / 24 = 54% 4 Return Winners 0
4 / 4 = 100% Break Point Conversions 0 / 0 = 0% 4 / 4 = 100% Breaks / Games With Break Point 0 / 0 = 0%
52 Total Points Won 20
Johnny McEnroe (#710 - Master-10 100.0%) def. Tomas Barrios Vera (#295 - Master-10 97.0%) : 6/1 6/1 - Quarter-final - Bergamo - Carpet - 0:14'11 (0:43'59) - 2024-01-14 04:28 (2021 ; Week 1)

19 / 31 = 61% 1st Serve 19 / 33 = 58% 35 / 43 = 81% Short Rallies Won (< 5) 8 / 43 = 19%
8 Aces 0 15 / 19 = 79% Medium Rallies Won (5-8) 4 / 19 = 21%
1 Double Faults 2 2 / 2 = 100% Long Rallies Won (> 8) 0 / 2 = 0%
117 Mph Fastest Serve 72 Mph Average Rally Length: 3.6
107 Mph Avg 1st Serve Speed 69 Mph 0 Set Points Saved 1
88 Mph Avg 2nd Serve Speed 65 Mph 0 Match Points Saved 0
27 Winners 6 18 / 19 = 95% Points won on 1st Serve 7 / 19 = 37%
1 Forced Errors 9 10 / 12 = 83% Points won on 2nd Serve 2 / 14 = 14%
4 Unforced Errors 6 24 / 33 = 73% Return Points Won 3 / 31 = 10%
24 / 27 = 89% Net Approaches 2 / 2 = 100% 4 Return Winners 0
5 / 5 = 100% Break Point Conversions 0 / 0 = 0% 5 / 5 = 100% Breaks / Games With Break Point 0 / 0 = 0%
52 Total Points Won 12
Johnny McEnroe (#710 - Master-10 100.0%) def. Sergio Martos Gornes (#227 - Master-10 100.0%) : 6/1 6/0 - Semifinal - Bergamo - Carpet - 0:12'30 (0:41'38) - 2024-01-14 04:29 (2021 ; Week 1)

18 / 30 = 60% 1st Serve 22 / 32 = 69% 40 / 47 = 85% Short Rallies Won (< 5) 7 / 47 = 15%
8 Aces 0 10 / 15 = 67% Medium Rallies Won (5-8) 5 / 15 = 33%
0 Double Faults 1 0 / 0 = 0% Long Rallies Won (> 8) 0 / 0 = 0%
122 Mph Fastest Serve 104 Mph Average Rally Length: 3.0
108 Mph Avg 1st Serve Speed 96 Mph 0 Set Points Saved 0
92 Mph Avg 2nd Serve Speed 83 Mph 0 Match Points Saved 0
18 Winners 4 16 / 18 = 89% Points won on 1st Serve 8 / 22 = 36%
3 Forced Errors 9 12 / 12 = 100% Points won on 2nd Serve 2 / 10 = 20%
5 Unforced Errors 14 22 / 32 = 69% Return Points Won 2 / 30 = 7%
19 / 21 = 90% Net Approaches 9 / 26 = 35% 2 Return Winners 0
5 / 6 = 83% Break Point Conversions 0 / 0 = 0% 5 / 5 = 100% Breaks / Games With Break Point 0 / 0 = 0%
50 Total Points Won 12
Johnny McEnroe (#710 - Master-10 100.0%) def. Pelayo Rodriguez (#278 - Master-10 92.1%) : 6/0 6/2 - Final - Bergamo - Carpet - 0:17'23 (0:53'41) - 2024-01-14 04:30 (2021 ; Week 1)

21 / 32 = 66% 1st Serve 26 / 47 = 55% 50 / 62 = 81% Short Rallies Won (< 5) 12 / 62 = 19%
7 Aces 0 6 / 15 = 40% Medium Rallies Won (5-8) 9 / 15 = 60%
0 Double Faults 2 1 / 2 = 50% Long Rallies Won (> 8) 1 / 2 = 50%
116 Mph Fastest Serve 88 Mph Average Rally Length: 2.9
105 Mph Avg 1st Serve Speed 76 Mph 0 Set Points Saved 0
94 Mph Avg 2nd Serve Speed 67 Mph 0 Match Points Saved 0
21 Winners 17 20 / 21 = 95% Points won on 1st Serve 15 / 26 = 58%
2 Forced Errors 17 9 / 11 = 82% Points won on 2nd Serve 4 / 21 = 19%
3 Unforced Errors 10 28 / 47 = 60% Return Points Won 3 / 32 = 9%
21 / 25 = 84% Net Approaches 17 / 30 = 57% 6 Return Winners 2
5 / 8 = 63% Break Point Conversions 0 / 1 = 0% 5 / 6 = 83% Breaks / Games With Break Point 0 / 1 = 0%
57 Total Points Won 22

[manutoo]

The correct formula has 17.5 instead of 1.75.

In these logs, McEnroe has similar 1st serve percentages.