MarkChan wrote:Firstly, the example you provide is not as good as my IW and Miami examples. Barcelona is in April and Acapulco is in February. And they have different number of entries while the main draws in IW and Miami doubles are full. They are also held in back-to-back weeks.
Miami :
OT_ViewTournament.php?Trn=801 ; 1st 4 seeds = 1 ; 31 ; 24 ; 14
Indian Wells :
OT_ViewTournament.php?Trn=799 ; 1st 4 seeds = 1 ; 29 ; 24 ; 14
Not Same...
MarkChan wrote:I think you should just read the many convincing evidences here and look into the ways the draws are made. Your example of Barcelona and Acapulco is much less convincing than the examples players provided here. Now I would just wait to draw VampireZattitude again in Rome and Roland Garros the earliest possible round maybe and I hope at that time you will not tell me it is coincidence again. Because I calculated the probability that I get her so many times consecutively in the tournaments that both of us are present and I get 2/8 (Metz, I am unseeded) X 2/16 (Shanghai, I am unseeded) X 2/32(AO, I am unseeded) X 1/2(Madrid, I am seed 4) so far. [She is always seeded 1] That means it is 0.09%. My probability knowledge tells me this is very rare. I should just play lottery instead of TE maybe.
Like I said, some people need a crash course on probabilities.
A quick example : there are 1 million people with each 1 number from 1 to 1'000'000. I draw 1 number in this range. Each person has 0.0001% chance to get their number drawn. The one that gets it can say "oh my god, that's impossible, I won but I had only 0.0001% chance for this to happen".
But the truth is that there was 100% chance that 1 person wins, so nothing special happened.
Now, I'm pretty sure you still won't get it, so I'm going to explain even a bit more : you don't have to count the probabilities for your own case to happen ; you have to count the probabilities for your kind of case to happen in the whole set. In my previous example, it was 100%. In your case, how much it was ? (hint: the answer is not 0.09%, like it was not 0.0001% in the example above)
Kimiko Date Krumm wrote:about draws.. and mods ..if we have 2 small tournament on a week 250 or atp500 sampreas and heinrich never play on the same tournament ..why? because sampreas can see who will play on the tournaments and he afraid of heinrich thats why he choose the other tournaments...its not so fair ...
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